Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.233229 14.277070 16.507969 19.117395 22.079073 25.329167 29.158575
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.519011 11.163503 14.340892 18.410262 23.450950 29.454939 37.108962
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.230823 9.049271 12.732087 17.828026 24.616556 33.259489 44.991093
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.934352 7.843030 11.929990 17.968071 26.512153 37.996686 54.388641
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.901592 6.744265 11.013823 17.705299 27.693671 41.769364 62.746009
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.398248 6.315163 10.952478 18.589332 30.503343 47.951981 74.875435
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.896692 5.773301 10.602036 18.934141 32.477492 53.027134 85.754955
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.446674 5.220729 10.128044 18.980313 33.934920 57.384803 95.835964
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.083473 4.747797 9.702659 19.022166 35.340953 61.716725 106.131403
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.963230 4.720160 10.058589 20.440337 39.141837 70.094621 123.306623
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.793876 4.556457 10.129852 21.338378 42.107499 77.298358 139.038973
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.636629 4.386196 10.158210 22.145710 44.962470 84.488035 155.168834
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.395569 3.986094 9.684345 21.969926 46.088572 88.940412 167.248362
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.136592 3.483650 8.917488 21.117303 45.874393 91.059215 175.540455
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.935216 3.074292 8.281643 20.441019 45.912545 93.604946 184.721089
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.817944 2.859529 8.051460 20.591144 47.580013 99.217365 199.676818
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.693495 2.590492 7.644346 20.292360 48.294288 103.083101 211.685346
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.649526 2.551607 7.799592 21.286414 51.776006 112.422416 234.291164
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.583037 2.423557 7.703249 21.673927 53.987880 119.424675 252.882513
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.511563 2.258523 7.480053 21.725700 55.467087 125.068984 269.198323
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.449378 2.107038 7.267072 21.772716 56.931581 130.763839 285.907041
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.443249 2.160607 7.647253 23.367051 62.027480 144.128364 318.233547
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.418548 2.136514 7.795916 24.375791 65.849061 155.077246 346.312733